A survey indicates Labour would continue to hold all three Coventry constituencies should a General Election occur immediately, though the margin could be narrow as Reform support has increased.
In Coventry East, currently represented by Mary Creagh, Labour would capture 27% of the vote. In Coventry North West, held by Taiwo Owatemi, that figure stands at 28%, while in Coventry South, currently represented by Zarah Sultana, it reaches 27%. Sultana contested the 2024 General Election as a Labour candidate but had the whip removed after opposing the ruling Labour administration over the two child benefit cap, and now sits as a member of Your Party.
The poll shows Reform UK as Coventry’s second largest political force, with the Greens also seeing increased backing, a pattern consistent with outcomes from May’s local elections.
Coventry City Council surrendered its longstanding majority but maintained sufficient seats to remain the dominant group on the local authority, while Reform climbed to second place after the Conservatives suffered a dramatic loss of support, and the Greens also secured additional representation.
Reform polling shows 21% backing in Coventry East, 26% in Coventry North West and 20% in Coventry South.
In Coventry East, the Greens have emerged as the third largest force with 19% support compared to 12% for the Conservatives.
The Electoral Calculus survey also examined voting intentions under a tactical voting scenario. Should voters coordinate strategically, an anti-Reform campaign could materialise in Coventry, with the survey indicating Labour would secure 41% of the vote in Coventry North West.
Nationwide the survey projects Labour would receive 22% of the vote share if an election were held tomorrow, significantly reduced from the 35% achieved in 2024. This would yield 217 seats, down from 412 in 2024.
Reform is projected to achieve the same 22% vote share nationally, though this could result in just 127 seats. Their backing has fallen from 31% recorded in the January survey. The Conservatives would secure 151 seats with 20% of the vote.
Kevin Craig, who established PLMR and commissioned the survey, said Labour appears to have rebuilt momentum at a critical juncture for both the party and the nation. Keir Starmer deserves considerable praise for rebuilding Labour’s standing, achieving the historic 2024 General Election triumph and steering the country through two exceptionally difficult years. His record is defined by stability and a return to responsible governance.
He noted that Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster seems to have energised Labour, but the polling conveys a wider message. The public shows little enthusiasm for further political upheaval. Britain confronts substantial economic and global pressures, and citizens wish to see politicians unite behind steady leadership and prioritise national progress.
While another hung Parliament remains the most probable outcome based on these figures, the next General Election remains genuinely uncertain. Andy Burnham has clearly revitalised Labour, but the task now is converting that optimism into measurable results. The party capable of transforming a compelling vision into actual delivery will be best positioned to earn public confidence. The challenge for Labour’s next Leader will be reuniting the party anywhere close to the landslide victory Starmer achieved.